thinking-in-bets

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps users make better decisions by separating the quality of the decision-making process from the randomness of the outcome, mitigating cognitive biases like "resulting".

Core Features & Use Cases

• Decision Evaluation: Analyze past decisions based on the information available at the time, not just the final result.
• Uncertainty Management: Provides a framework for making choices when luck and unknown factors are involved.
• Bias Reduction: Helps identify and counteract biases such as overconfidence, hindsight bias, and sunk cost fallacy.
• Use Case: When faced with a business decision where the outcome is uncertain, use this Skill to explicitly define your beliefs, potential outcomes, and the reasoning behind your choice, allowing for a more objective post-decision review.

Quick Start

Help me evaluate a past decision by thinking in bets.