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TMHSDigital
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steam-wishlist-estimates

Estimate Steam wishlist counts and sales using follower data, review multipliers, and conversion benchmarks.

1|Updated Mar 26, 2026
Search Tags:#conversion rate#steam#wishlist#game marketing#sales estimation#boxleiter method#launch forecast
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/TMHSDigital/Steam-Cursor-Plugin --skill steam-wishlist-estimates-tmhsdigital
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: steam-wishlist-estimates
Source: https://github.com/TMHSDigital/Steam-Cursor-Plugin/tree/main/skills/steam-wishlist-estimates
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/TMHSDigital/Steam-Cursor-Plugin --skill steam-wishlist-estimates-tmhsdigital

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve? Steam keeps wishlist counts private, making it hard for developers to forecast launch sales or evaluate pre-release traction. This Skill provides estimation methods and industry benchmarks to turn public signals into actionable sales projections. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Boxleiter Method: Estimate total units sold by multiplying review counts by genre- and price-appropriate factors (×15 to ×80). - Wishlist-to-Sales Conversion Benchmarks: Apply day-1, week-1, month-1, and lifetime conversion rates to forecast launch performance. - Revenue Estimation: Calculate gross and net revenue accounting for Steam's tiered revenue cut, refunds, and regional pricing. - Use Case: A developer with 25,000 wishlists two weeks before launch can project 2,500-5,000 week-1 sales and estimate net revenue after Steam's 30% cut and refunds. ## Quick Start Ask the AI to estimate launch sales for your game given its wishlist count, price, and genre using Steam conversion benchmarks.

Frequently Asked Questions about steam-wishlist-estimates

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I estimate Steam sales from review counts?▼

Use the Boxleiter method: multiply total reviews by a factor of 15-80 depending on genre, price, and audience. A typical indie game from 2020 onward uses ×20-30, so 5,000 reviews suggests roughly 100,000-150,000 units sold.

What is a good wishlist-to-sales conversion rate on Steam?▼

Typical conversion is 5-15% on day one, 10-20% in week one, and 15-30% in the first month. Rates vary by genre, price point, marketing intensity, and release season.

How many wishlists do I need before launching a Steam game?▼

Around 10,000 wishlists at launch is often cited as the threshold for likely profitability for a solo or small-team indie. At typical conversion rates, that yields roughly 1,000-2,000 week-one sales.

Can I see another game's wishlist count on Steam?▼

No, wishlist counts are private to the game's publisher. You can estimate them from public follower counts using a ratio of roughly 1 follower per 5-10 wishlists, though this varies by visibility.

Why do wishlist sales estimates differ so much between games?▼

Conversion rates depend on genre, price, wishlist age, and marketing intensity. Older wishlists decay as players lose interest, and niche genres accumulate wishlists slowly but often convert at higher rates.

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