reference-class-forecasting
CommunityAnchor forecasts in reality, avoid bias.
Product & Management#decision making#forecasting#bias mitigation#base rate#statistical thinking#outside view
Authorlyndonkl
Version1.0.0
Installs0
System Documentation
What problem does it solve?
This Skill helps you establish a statistical baseline (base rate) for any forecast, preventing the common biases of overconfidence and "this time is different" thinking.
Core Features & Use Cases
- Establish Base Rates: Identify a relevant historical class of similar events and find their statistical outcomes.
- Challenge Uniqueness Claims: Systematically test if a current situation is truly exceptional or just appears so.
- Calculate Funnel Probabilities: Model multi-stage processes where no single base rate exists.
- Validate Reference Classes: Ensure your chosen comparison set is appropriate and data-rich.
- Use Case: Before predicting the success of a new startup, use this Skill to find the historical success rate of similar startups (e.g., seed-stage B2B SaaS in fintech) to set a realistic starting probability.
Quick Start
Use the reference-class-forecasting skill to find the base rate for a new software project launch.
Dependency Matrix
Required Modules
None requiredComponents
scriptsreferences
💻 Claude Code Installation
Recommended: Let Claude install automatically. Simply copy and paste the text below to Claude Code.
Please help me install this Skill: Name: reference-class-forecasting Download link: https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/archive/main.zip#reference-class-forecasting Please download this .zip file, extract it, and install it in the .claude/skills/ directory.
Agent Skills Search Helper
Install a tiny helper to your Agent, search and equip skill from 223,000+ vetted skills library on demand.