quant

What problem does it solve?

This Skill provides a comprehensive quantitative framework for understanding and simulating prediction markets and binary contracts, moving beyond simple price-as-probability assumptions.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Probabilistic Modeling: Simulates binary contracts using Monte Carlo, importance sampling for rare events, and particle filters for real-time updates.
• Correlation & Risk: Analyzes correlated outcomes using copulas and models market dynamics with agent-based simulations.
• Use Case: Model the probability of a specific political outcome by simulating correlated state-level predictions using a t-copula, and then update these probabilities in real-time as new polling data becomes available using a particle filter.

Quick Start

Use the quant skill to simulate a binary contract for AAPL with a strike of $200.