What problem does it solve? Product teams collect long lists of assumptions but struggle to decide which ones to test first, often wasting effort on low-impact ideas or shipping high-risk bets unvalidated. This Skill applies a structured Impact × Risk triage so every assumption gets a clear disposition: defer, proceed, reject, or test. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Impact × Risk triage: Scores each assumption on Impact (Opportunity Score × number of customers) and Risk ((1 − Confidence) × Effort), then places it into one of four matrix quadrants. - Experiment design: For high-impact, high-risk assumptions, suggests experiments that maximize validated learning, measure actual behavior rather than opinions, and define a clear success metric and threshold. - ICE and RICE grounding: Uses Dan Olsen's Opportunity Score formula and references ICE/RICE scoring conventions for consistent prioritization. - Use Case: After a discovery sprint, you have 12 assumptions about a new onboarding flow. Provide the list and receive a prioritized matrix showing which two assumptions need experiments, which three can ship directly, and which to reject. ## Quick Start Ask the assistant to prioritize this list of product assumptions using the Impact × Risk matrix and suggest an experiment for each high-risk one.
