pm-assumption-testing

Plan falsifiable tests for the riskiest assumptions behind a product idea.

12|2|Updated Jun 22, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/Uxcel-Lab/product-skills --skill pm-assumption-testing-uxcel-lab
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: pm-assumption-testing
Source: https://github.com/Uxcel-Lab/product-skills/tree/main/pm/processes/assumption-testing
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/Uxcel-Lab/product-skills --skill pm-assumption-testing-uxcel-lab

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve? Teams often validate product ideas by asking users if they like the concept or by jumping straight to building an MVP, which produces false positives and wasted investment. This Skill decomposes an idea into its load-bearing assumptions, prioritizes the riskiest ones, and matches each to the cheapest test method that answers the question. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Assumption Decomposition: Breaks an idea into desirability, viability, feasibility, usability, and ethical assumptions, then ranks them by importance and certainty to find the riskiest belief. - Hypothesis Framing: Converts assumptions into falsifiable hypotheses with pre-agreed pass/fail thresholds, blocking confirmation bias and after-the-fact reinterpretation. - Method Selection: Matches each assumption to the right fidelity of test, from interviews and painted-door smoke tests to concierge MVPs and A/B tests, scaling rigor to the stakes of the decision. - Use Case: A product manager considering a premium curated-meals feature uses this Skill to identify the leap-of-faith assumption (users will pay a premium), phrase it as a measurable hypothesis, and run a landing-page smoke test before writing any code. ## Quick Start Ask the assistant to help you test whether your product idea will work by identifying its riskiest assumptions and designing the cheapest experiment for each.

Frequently Asked Questions about pm-assumption-testing

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I test assumptions before building a product?▼

Decompose the idea into the beliefs it depends on, rank them by importance and certainty, and test the riskiest first with the cheapest method that answers the question. Phrase each as a falsifiable hypothesis with a pass/fail threshold set before running the test.

How to write a falsifiable product hypothesis?▼

Use the format: we believe [change] for [user] will result in [outcome]; we will know we are right when [metric] changes by [amount]. Phrase it positively around what users will do, and agree the success threshold with the team before testing.

What is the difference between a smoke test and an MVP?▼

A painted-door or landing-page smoke test measures demand through real actions like clicks and sign-ups before anything is built. A concierge or Wizard of Oz MVP delivers the value manually to test whether the solution actually works for users.

When should I use an A/B test versus user interviews?▼

Use interviews and low-fidelity tests early to learn whether anyone cares about the problem. Reserve A/B tests for optimizing or scaling an already-validated idea, since they need adequate sample size, duration, and statistical rigor.

Why do customer interviews produce misleading validation results?▼

Asking hypothetical questions like would you use this invites polite yeses that are false positives. Ask about past behavior instead, such as the last time the person dealt with the problem, and measure real actions like sign-ups or pre-orders.