What problem does it solve? Evaluating prediction markets manually requires checking executable pricing, liquidity, historical base rates, and wallet activity across many tools, and it is easy to confuse midpoint prices with tradable odds or to overstate historical evidence. This Skill turns the OBaI prediction-markets MCP server into a disciplined decision-support desk for Polymarket trading. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Market Discovery & Snapshots: Search and explore trending Polymarket markets, then pull executable YES/NO bid/ask, spread, and depth for the most relevant ones. - Trade Decision Memos: Produce structured memos with fair value, edge after fees and slippage, catalysts, entry/exit plans, invalidation, and an explicit Buy YES / Buy NO / No trade decision. - Historical Analytics: Run calibration, longshot-bias, rule backtests, Monte Carlo risk, edge estimation, and Kelly sizing against resolved-market data with stated sample sizes and limitations. - Use Case: Ask whether a live election market is mispriced; the Skill fetches executable pricing, compares it to a resolved-market base rate for the matching price bucket, and returns a decision memo or a No trade verdict. ## Quick Start Ask the agent to evaluate a specific Polymarket market by slug or URL and produce a trade decision memo with current executable pricing and edge.
