Monitor Prediction Markets

Monitor Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets for 24h price moves, volume shifts, and alerts.

Updated Jun 11, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/aaronjmars/aeon-bd --skill monitor-prediction-markets-aaronjmars
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: Monitor Prediction Markets
Source: https://github.com/aaronjmars/aeon-bd/tree/main/skills/monitor-polymarket
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/aaronjmars/aeon-bd --skill monitor-prediction-markets-aaronjmars

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve? Tracking prediction markets manually across Polymarket and Kalshi means scanning dozens of markets and missing the moves that actually matter. This Skill automates the scan, ranks markets by decision value, and delivers a concise notification highlighting only significant price moves, volume spikes, and high-conviction alerts. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Dual-platform monitoring: Fetches 24h price history, volume, and comments from Polymarket's gamma-api and clob endpoints, plus candlesticks, orderbook depth, and liquidity signals from Kalshi's trade-api v2 — all public, no auth required. - Signal-ranked reporting: Computes move scores weighted by volume, applies suppression rules to filter thin-book noise, and flags markets moving more than 5 percentage points with a one-line "why it matters" explanation. - Flexible targeting: Run both platforms from watchlists, a single platform, or one ad-hoc event via a selector like polymarket:us-x-iran-ceasefire-by or kalshi:KXGDP-26Q2. - Use Case: A crypto researcher wants a daily digest of prediction market activity. The Skill reads the watchlists, compares against yesterday's logs to avoid repeat alerts, and sends one combined notification with ranked movers, top comments, and trending untracked events. ## Quick Start Ask the AI to run the prediction market monitor for both Polymarket and Kalshi and notify you of any markets that moved more than 5 percentage points in the last 24 hours.

Frequently Asked Questions about Monitor Prediction Markets

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I monitor Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets automatically?▼

Add event slugs to the Polymarket watchlist and event tickers to the Kalshi watchlist, then run the monitor. It fetches 24h price history, volume, and orderbook data from public APIs and sends a ranked notification of significant movers.

How to track a single Polymarket or Kalshi event instead of a watchlist?▼

Pass a selector with an event identifier, such as polymarket:us-x-iran-ceasefire-by for a Polymarket event slug or kalshi:KXGDP-26Q2 for a Kalshi event ticker. The monitor runs only that event instead of the full watchlist.

Does the Polymarket and Kalshi API access require authentication?▼

No authentication is required. All endpoints used — Polymarket's gamma-api and clob, and Kalshi's trade-api v2 — are public. Requests are made with curl, with WebFetch as a fallback for flaky GET requests.

What counts as an alert in prediction market monitoring?▼

A hard alert triggers when a market moves at least 5 percentage points in 24 hours on a non-thin orderbook. Alerts require a short "why it matters" line referencing volume, spread, prior log state, or an inferable news trigger.

Why does the monitor skip some markets in its report?▼

Markets are suppressed if they fail all signal gates: under 2pp movement with low volume, under $25,000 daily volume, and no significant open interest growth. Closed or settled markets are also skipped, and repeated moves from yesterday are demoted.

What happens if the Kalshi watchlist is empty?▼

The monitor emits MONITOR_KALSHI_NO_CONFIG, sends a one-line setup hint, and discovers trending events for that run only. It picks the five highest-volume open events from the Kalshi API and monitors those instead.