mean-reversion

Run ADF, Hurst, and variance ratio tests to assess mean reversion.

1|Updated May 15, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/dnkrow/skill --skill mean-reversion-dnkrow
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: mean-reversion
Source: https://github.com/dnkrow/skill/tree/main/claude-global/mean-reversion
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/dnkrow/skill --skill mean-reversion-dnkrow

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill requires numpy, pandas, scipy, httpx, and includes scripts (resource) and references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

Mean-reversion analytics determine whether a price (or spread) series is statistically likely to revert to a long-run average, so you can build trading signals with measurable evidence rather than guesswork.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Stationarity & mean-reversion validation: Runs ADF testing plus Hurst exponent and variance ratio checks to support or refute mean-reversion behavior.
  • Timing & signal construction: Estimates mean-reversion half-life and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) parameters, then turns deviations into z-score entry/exit/stop signals.
  • Pairs/spread workflow: Includes a scanner that evaluates pairwise combinations for correlation, Engle–Granger cointegration, spread Hurst, spread half-life, and current z-score-based spread signals.

Use Case: You suspect a crypto token is mean-reverting after a shock; you run the analysis to confirm stationarity and estimate half-life, then use the z-score framework to decide whether conditions are suitable for a mean-reversion long/short and what horizon to use.

Quick Start

Run the mean-reversion demo analysis using synthetic OU data to see a full report of ADF/Hurst/variance ratio/half-life/OU parameters and the current z-score signal for the series.

Frequently Asked Questions about mean-reversion

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I test if a price series is mean-reverting?▼

Mean reversion testing uses ADF, Hurst exponent, and variance ratio tests to validate stationarity. These checks confirm whether a price series is statistically likely to revert to a long-run average.

How do I calculate mean reversion half-life for a trading signal?▼

Mean reversion half-life is calculated using AR(1)-based estimation and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameter mapping. This determines the expected reversion horizon and feeds directly into z-score threshold logic for entry and exit signals.

Can I use Engle-Granger cointegration for pairs trading spread screening?▼

Yes, Engle-Granger cointegration is used for pairs trading spread screening. A scanner evaluates pairwise combinations for correlation, spread Hurst, spread half-life, and z-score signals across multiple candidate assets.

What's the best way to generate z-score entry and exit signals for a spread?▼

Z-score entry and exit signals are generated by applying z-score threshold logic to validated time series. This transforms price or spread deviations into actionable long, short, or stop signals.

Does this mean reversion analysis work with crypto analytics?▼

Yes, mean reversion analysis applies to crypto analytics. It supports single-asset crypto research and cointegrated pair spread screening across multiple candidate tokens using validated input time series.