market-mechanics-betting
CommunityConvert beliefs to bets, optimize decisions.
Finance & Accounting#decision making#risk management#probability#forecasting#betting#kelly criterion
Authorlyndonkl
Version1.0.0
Installs0
System Documentation
What problem does it solve?
This Skill translates probabilistic beliefs into concrete betting decisions and optimizes resource allocation, ensuring you make rational, profitable choices based on quantitative analysis.
Core Features & Use Cases
- Edge Calculation: Determine if your probability offers a statistical advantage over market odds.
- Kelly Criterion: Calculate optimal bet sizes to maximize long-term bankroll growth while managing risk.
- Forecast Scoring: Improve accuracy by understanding and optimizing Brier scores.
- Use Case: You believe a political candidate has a 60% chance of winning, but the market odds imply only a 50% chance. This Skill helps you calculate your edge, determine the optimal bet size using the Kelly Criterion, and decide whether to place a bet.
Quick Start
Use the market-mechanics-betting skill to calculate the edge for a bet where your probability is 70% and the market probability is 55%.
Dependency Matrix
Required Modules
None requiredComponents
scriptsreferences
💻 Claude Code Installation
Recommended: Let Claude install automatically. Simply copy and paste the text below to Claude Code.
Please help me install this Skill: Name: market-mechanics-betting Download link: https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/archive/main.zip#market-mechanics-betting Please download this .zip file, extract it, and install it in the .claude/skills/ directory.
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