lean-analytics

Name your business model archetype (e-commerce, SaaS, free mobile app, media, UGC, or marketplace) and your current stage from Empathy through Scale. The intersection of model and stage determines your One Metric That Matters, which should be a cohorted ratio with a target and date.

The OMTM is the single number that answers your riskiest current assumption, displayed prominently with 4-6 supporting metrics. Pick it by naming your model and stage, then pair it with a counter-metric so it cannot be gamed, and pre-commit a target, date, and miss response.

Apply four tests: a good metric is comparative, understandable, a ratio or rate, and behavior-changing. Vanity metrics like total signups and cumulative revenue only rise over time; rewrite them as conversion rates, retention cohorts, or per-user rates.

Only after passing the Stickiness gate, meaning cohort retention curves flatten at a viable floor. Spending on acquisition while retention leaks multiplies churn; the framework recommends freezing growth spend until retention targets hold for consecutive cohorts.

Early SaaS should treat roughly 5% monthly customer churn as the upper bound of viable, pushing toward 2% or lower. For habitual apps, DAU/MAU around 20% signals real engagement, and casual mobile apps average roughly 14% day-30 retention.

Blended averages hide improving cohorts behind shrinking old ones and mask segment differences. Cohort analysis compares groups at the same age, while segmentation by channel, plan, and geography reveals 2x differences that aggregates conceal, including Simpson's paradox reversals.