l4-evolution-from-randomness-to-fragility

Taleb shifted from asking how to predict rare events to asking how to build systems that survive or benefit from them. He reframed the central problem from unpredictability to fragility, which is measurable through a system's response to volatility.

The Black Swan framework focuses on epistemic failure and why rare events cannot be predicted. The fragility framework ignores prediction and instead measures whether a system has more downside than upside from variability, enabling structural responses like barbells and convexity.

Taleb argues that manufactured stability, such as central banks smoothing business cycles, accumulates hidden risk like fuel for a fire. Suppressing small stressors removes the feedback systems need, breeding larger catastrophic Black Swans.

It draws on the postscript essays of The Black Swan, the prologue and first chapters of Antifragile, and the preface of Fooled by Randomness. Each claim is tied to specific chapters listed in the provenance section.

Use fragility analysis when the specific shock cannot be forecast but the system's response shape can be assessed. If a system is concave to stressors, it is fragile regardless of which shock arrives, so structure matters more than prediction.