key-assumptions-check

Surfaces and challenges the stated and unstated premises behind a conclusion.

4|1|Updated Jul 30, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/radarist/structured-analytic-skills --skill key-assumptions-check-radarist
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: key-assumptions-check
Source: https://github.com/radarist/structured-analytic-skills/tree/main/skills/key-assumptions-check
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/radarist/structured-analytic-skills --skill key-assumptions-check-radarist

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve? Conclusions often fail not because of bad evidence but because of premises that were never written down or examined. This Skill makes every assumption behind a conclusion explicit, challenges each one, and flags the unsupported load-bearing premises as key uncertainties before they cause a bad decision. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Premise Excavation: Lists implicit, boundary, and absence-of-evidence premises, not just the ones already stated in the argument. - Structured Categorization: Rates each premise on grounding and sensitivity, then sorts it into Heuer and Pherson's categories: basically solid, correct with caveats, or unsupported/questionable. - Key Uncertainty Dispositions: Converts every unsupported load-bearing premise into a named key uncertainty with a disposition — re-source it, test it, bound the conclusion, or flag it with lowered confidence. - Use Case: Before committing budget to a replatforming decision, run the check to discover that the conclusion rests on an unverified assumption that churn is driven by availability rather than missing features, and turn that into a research task with an owner. ## Quick Start Run a key assumptions check on the conclusion that we should replatform to multi-region this year, listing and challenging every premise it rests on.

Frequently Asked Questions about key-assumptions-check

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I run a key assumptions check on a conclusion?▼

State the conclusion in one sentence, list every premise it requires including unstated ones, challenge each for grounding and sensitivity, then categorize them as solid, caveated, or unsupported. Unsupported load-bearing premises become key uncertainties with a disposition: re-source, test, bound, or flag.

What is the difference between a key assumptions check and a premortem?▼

A key assumptions check excavates the present premises a stated conclusion already rests on, while a premortem imagines future failure modes of a plan. Use the assumptions check to audit existing reasoning and the premortem to invent how things could go wrong.

When should I use analysis of competing hypotheses instead?▼

Use analysis of competing hypotheses when several rival explanations need ranking against the evidence. The key assumptions check starts from a single leading conclusion and audits what it assumes, so it fits after a winner has been picked.

What are the categories in a key assumptions check?▼

Heuer and Pherson define three categories: basically solid, correct with some caveats, and unsupported or questionable. This Skill adds a grounding-by-sensitivity grid that also produces a deprioritize bucket for weak premises that do not affect the conclusion.

Why does consensus not count as grounding for an assumption?▼

Consensus means a premise is widely shared, not that it is evidenced. Shared assumptions are typically the least recently examined, so the method treats 'everyone assumes X' as a weak premise with confidence attached rather than a grounded one.