indicators-validation

Validates scenario indicator lists by rating diagnosticity and building monitoring plans.

4|1|Updated Jul 30, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/radarist/structured-analytic-skills --skill indicators-validation-radarist
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: indicators-validation
Source: https://github.com/radarist/structured-analytic-skills/tree/main/skills/indicators-validation
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/radarist/structured-analytic-skills --skill indicators-validation-radarist

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) components.

What problem does it solve? Watchlists and signpost lists often "confirm" every scenario at once, making them useless for telling which future is unfolding. This Skill applies Heuer & Pherson's Indicators Validator to rate every indicator against every scenario, drop non-diagnostic ones, and turn the survivors into an actionable monitoring plan. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Validator Matrix: Rates each indicator against each scenario on the HL/L/C/U/HU scale, computes diagnosticity spread, and assigns keep/weak/drop verdicts. - Coverage Check: Ensures every scenario has at least three unique kept indicators and flags gaps that require generating more indicators. - Monitoring Plan Output: Produces a plan with source, threshold, cadence, owner, an absence rule, and a re-validation date for each kept indicator. - Use Case: A strategy team with three 2030 battery-market scenarios validates twelve candidate signposts; the Skill drops two that would appear under all scenarios, keeps nine, and emits a monitoring plan with quarterly cadence and named owners. ## Quick Start Ask the AI to validate your indicator list against your existing scenarios and return the diagnostic set with a monitoring plan, optionally running scripts/indicators.py on a JSON case file.

Frequently Asked Questions about indicators-validation

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I validate an indicator list against multiple scenarios?▼

Rate every indicator against every scenario on the HL/L/C/U/HU scale, then compute the spread between highest and lowest ratings. Indicators with spread of 3 or more are kept, spread of 2 are weak reserves, and spread of 1 or less are dropped as non-diagnostic.

What makes a good early-warning indicator for scenario monitoring?▼

A good indicator is observable and collectable, valid, reliable, stable, and unique to one scenario. It must be a dated, thresholded statement like a price level or tender share, never a vague theme or the scenario outcome itself.

How do I run the indicators.py companion script?▼

Run python3 scripts/indicators.py validate --file case.json with a JSON file listing scenarios and rated indicators. Subcommands matrix and plan print the rating grid and monitoring-plan skeleton, and --selftest runs hand-verified checks.

When should I use scenario planning instead of indicator validation?▼

Use scenario planning when no scenarios exist yet and you need to build the 2x2 futures matrix from critical uncertainties. Indicator validation presupposes an existing scenario set and answers which one is unfolding.

Why are indicators that appear under every scenario dropped?▼

An indicator likely under all scenarios carries no diagnostic information about which world you are in. The Validator discards these uniform rows because importance is not diagnosticity, keeping only indicators that discriminate between scenarios.