hdd

Formulate testable hypotheses and grade evidence to diagnose uncertain system failures.

2|Updated Apr 6, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/augustscl/awesome-xiawang-skills --skill hdd-augustscl
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: hdd
Source: https://github.com/augustscl/awesome-xiawang-skills/tree/main/hdd
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/augustscl/awesome-xiawang-skills --skill hdd-augustscl

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

HDD (Hypothesis-Driven Development) helps teams and individuals diagnose ambiguous failures, choose between competing solutions, and avoid costly, incorrect changes by forcing testable hypotheses and evidence-based decisions. It prevents wasted effort caused by unchecked assumptions and guess-and-fix cycles by turning uncertainty into verifiable experiments.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Hypothesis formulation & priors: Teach how to state hypotheses explicitly, assign prior probabilities, and record the basis for those priors.
  • Evidence grading & reproducibility: Provide a graded evidence model (V1–V5) and require reproducible tests (V1/V2) before proceeding.
  • Test-first workflow: Guide users through Plan Test (PT), Acceptance Test Design (AT Design), Development (DEV), AT Run, and E2E, with clear rollback rules.
  • Use cases: Incident triage for flaky services, architecture or vendor selection with controlled spikes, root-cause analysis for unexpected behavior, and converting vague bug reports into verifiable test cases.

Quick Start

Apply HDD to diagnose a failing service by listing 3 testable hypotheses, specifying observable falsification criteria for each, designing a minimal verification test, and running the highest-impact test first.

Frequently Asked Questions about hdd

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I find the root cause of a flaky service incident?▼

To find the root cause of a flaky service, formulate 3 testable hypotheses with explicit falsification criteria, then run the highest-impact verification test first to isolate the failure.

What is hypothesis-driven development for software debugging?▼

Hypothesis-driven debugging is a method that diagnoses uncertain software failures by assigning prior probabilities to hypotheses and requiring verifiable, reproducible tests before making code changes.

How do I convert vague bug reports into verifiable test cases?▼

Convert vague bug reports into verifiable test cases by applying a test-first workflow: define observable falsification criteria, design a minimal acceptance test, and execute it before development.

Can I use hypothesis testing for architecture and vendor selection?▼

Yes, you can use hypothesis testing for architecture and vendor selection by running controlled spikes as verifiable experiments to evaluate competing solutions and avoid incorrect changes.

What is the V1-V5 evidence grading model in root-cause analysis?▼

The V1-V5 evidence grading model categorizes reproducibility levels, requiring V1 or V2 reproducible tests to be passed before proceeding to development or end-to-end testing.

When should I not use guess-and-fix cycles for regression analysis?▼

Avoid guess-and-fix cycles for regression analysis when outcomes are uncertain, and instead use acceptance-test-driven progression rules with clear rollback criteria to prevent wasted effort.