forecast-premortem

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you identify blind spots and overconfidence in your predictions by forcing you to imagine they have already failed and work backward to understand why.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Failure Premortem: Assume a prediction failed and write the history of how it happened.
• Success Premortem: For pessimistic predictions, assume the unlikely success occurred and explore how.
• Dragonfly Eye Perspective: Analyze failure through multiple conflicting viewpoints (skeptic, fanatic, observer).
• Tail Risk Identification: Systematically find black swans and unknown unknowns using frameworks like PESTLE.
• Confidence Interval Adjustment: Quantify how premortem findings should widen your forecast's uncertainty bounds.
• Use Case: Before launching a new product, run a premortem to uncover potential market shifts, competitive responses, or execution pitfalls you hadn't considered, allowing you to proactively mitigate them.

Quick Start

Run a failure premortem for the prediction 'This startup will reach $10M ARR within 2 years' with 75% confidence.