What problem does it solve? Single-source market-size figures are unfalsifiable — analyst houses publish numbers several-fold apart for the same market. This Skill builds two independent estimates from different directions and treats their agreement as the test, producing a defensible range instead of a borrowed point figure. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Two-direction triangulation: Builds a top-down estimate by cutting a larger published market through share ratios, and a bottom-up estimate from buyer counts, adoption, and revenue per buyer, then applies the 0.33–3× order-of-magnitude agreement rule. - TAM/SAM/SOM layering: Labels every figure with its layer and cascades TAM to SAM to SOM with stated reach and capture percentages, following Blank & Dorf (2012) and Aulet (2013). - Deterministic companion tool: scripts/market.py (stdlib-only Python) runs the cascade, bottom-up unit economics, and triangulation verdict with a geometric-mean midpoint, removing arithmetic slips. - Use Case: A pitch deck claims a "$40B by 2030" opportunity. Use this Skill to separate today's size from the growth assumption, build both estimates, and reject the claim if the two directions disagree by more than 3× — naming the input most likely to explain the gap. ## Quick Start Ask the assistant to size the market for your product by building top-down and bottom-up estimates and reporting the TAM, SAM, and SOM as a range with sources.
