What problem does it solve? When a goal is set that current trends will not deliver — net-zero by 2040, a 2035 business vision — forward planning from today's constraints only extends today's trajectory. This Skill applies Robinson's normative backcasting method (Energy Policy, 1982) to reason backwards from a fixed, quantified end state, exposing the discontinuities, lead times, and lock-ins that a forward plan would hide. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Quantified end state and backward milestone chain: Defines the vision with at least five quantified indicators, then iterates "what must already be true N years earlier?" back to the present, paced by physical and institutional lead times. - Evidenced measure packages and gap analysis: Attaches policies, investments, and precedents to every leg, requires a precedent or owned research bet for each flagged discontinuity, and runs a barrier and lock-in register against the current trajectory. - Near-term action agenda: Produces actions with owners and start dates, decision points that keep two pathways alive, and a review cadence with a re-backcast trigger. - Use Case: A city committed to a zero-emission bus fleet by 2040 uses the Skill to discover that the 12-year bus service life forces the last diesel purchase in 2028, which forces depot upgrade contracts years earlier — constraints invisible in a forward plan. ## Quick Start Use the backcasting skill to work backwards from our 2040 net-zero target into a dated milestone roadmap with near-term actions.
